Category Archives: Bitcoin trading

Precious Metals Outlook Increasingly Strong

The price outlook for gold and silver bullion has again turned to strong. There are several factors that have resumed working strongly in favor of precious metals investment.

After its peak in late-summer 2011, the gold and silver market has seemed to be on the retreat to most investors. The great selloff triggered by ETFs pulling back from the gold and silver market segment over-exaggerated the perceived decline in precious metals prices. On second thoughts though, both precious metals kept much of their value, with gold performing not too bad in particular.

In the intermediate term, and with the advent of Crypto currencies, some investment money looking for alternatives had gone into Bitcoin, Litecoin, and other of the so-called virtual currencies or, rather, Crypto coins or tokens.

With a number of both fundamental and technical events, this trend in favor of Crypto seems to be reversing right now. The most prominent of these is the move of Gold Bullion in the Basel III regulation from a tier-2 to a tier-1 asset. This means that capital reserves in gold held by commercial banks are now marked to market with a 100% instead of 50% ratio (as previously, when gold was classed ‘tier-2’). The other factor is technical hurdles in Crypto prices, now forming something of a plateau or NSW (narrow sideways-channel) from a technical point of view that it’s increasingly hard for Crypto prices to break out of.

The result, so far, has been a bottoming-out and significant turnaround in precious metals prices in the wake of this summer’s Basel III gold holdings re-classification. Gold prices have broken out of their own narrow-sideways-channel between $1300 and $1450 and have started testing the $1500 barrier in September. While it may take some time for this price level to clear, once it does the upward move in gold as well as silver bullion prices is likely to accelerate.

It remains to be seen whether or not this will drain more capital from the Crypto markets of if Crypto coins will be able to shrug this fact off.

 

BTC Price Defies ETF Turn-Down by Chicago Board of Exchange

The Chicago Board of Exchange has withdrawn its applications for Bitcoin ETFs. Bitcoin and other Crypto prices held steady despite the fact that the mainstream news and financial talking-heads might see a move like that ‘catastrophic’ for near-term prices. Rather than following conventional ‘wisdom’, prices of Crypto coins continued their overall friendly moves seen to be back in the markets since mid-December, with most of them trading steady to higher compared to US dollars or other national currencies.

The fact that BTC prices did not at all drop on this particular bit of news should be seen as yet another proof of no significant portions of dumb money slushing around in the overall Crypto markets anymore — an overall positive fact when it comes to near-term to medium-term outlooks for Crypto prices.

Just over a year ago, and with the Crypto price mania in full swing, expectations of the introduction of Bitcoin Futures may have been a large contributing factor to the explosive price movements at the time.

Sure enough, this resulted in very short-lived hyperbolic growth followed by a blow-off top and serious breakdown in price, from which Bitcoin and the other Cryptos have, so far, spent roughly a year trying to recover.

It is very nice to see that the CBOE’s turn-down did not deliver another blow to the price of Bitcoin against the US dollar for many reasons: apart from the obvious preference for advancing prices, it’s got to do with a deeper analysis of the audience or market participants in the overall Crypto coin sphere. It is a well-known fact that ETFs attract usually the very dumb money of particularly unqualified speculators. Buying an ETF on anything does not require any sophistication whatsoever — but understanding why this is more often than not a bad idea anyway would take at least some, and that’s why so many people buy them and ETF managers are laughing all the way to the bank.

When it comes to ETFs on the BTC price, the audience is even dumber than for, say, stock index ETFs or market segment ETFs that may (or may not) make sense to someone wanting a quick fix and some price exposure to, e, g, the S&P500 which (after listening to his “financial advisor” or watching hundreds of hours of CNBC or Bloomberg) he may believe a “non-tradeable” instrument. (Do note though that the S&P500 can be traded, in fact, even if buying or selling S&P futures require very high margins and is beyond the means of many small investors; still, price exposure can equally be had by buying and offsetting S&P options, starting at $25 per pop, or options on the S&P mini from $5.) When it comes to buying an ETF on the Bitcoin price, doing so shows an even more severe lack of information. Dodging the hassle of even looking into how a simple Bitcoin wallet can be set up and the resulting willingness to go for a Bitcoin ETF instead only proves that this speculator is not even able or willing to do a few clicks on his computer but turns to his “trusted providers” of consolation and perceived safety instead. A retail investor or speculator of this type will, of course, pay significant mark-ups (as in extra-high prices plus fees charged) on something he could have had for zero fees!

Demonstrating price moves indicating that the overall Crypto segment is not overly dependent on that kind of money is a very good thing.

Crypto and Bitcoin Prices Consolidating Now?

After breaking record high after record high during the same time last year, the ensuing decline and overall price breakdown of Bitcoin and Alt coins across the board have quickly made Crypto almost everyone’s least-favored investment.

Rightly so, if what matters for the great majority of Bitcoin enthusiasts is only price against US dollars or other paper currencies.

At the risk of sounding boring or repetitive, it needs to be stretched though that — more than opportunity for high-volatility trading and asset price appreciation — Bitcoin’s most important feature is the introduction of distributed ledger technology (DLT) and its potential for decentralized application technologies and the development of innovative and even more cost-effective solutions than conventional internet technology brought about.

Right now, Crypto token prices may be consolidating and show a few sign of developing a bottom formation — but one that is far from confirmed yet, so nobody should read this or any similar comment as an invitation to jump in and repeat their get-rich-quick dreams fostered last year.

Prices this week have shown an upward move above mid-Novembers meltdown that had been brought about by Bitcoin Cash’s hard fork and resulting market instability. If (and only if) prices further stabilize and continue building a classic 1-2-3 bottom formation, then a further increase out of the doldrums could be in the books for early-2019. This would likely see a Bitcoin price recovery (that might be relatively short-lived though), followed by a Bitcoin-induced Alt coins recovery which should be more significant than Bitcoin’s own. There are two reasons for this assumption, (1) the disproportionally larger decline of most Alt coins and (2) the fact that Bitcoin remains clumsy, slow and energy-wasteful which makes Bitcoin a great experiment and a welcome first-mover but also one of the Crypto coins with the least utility. Faster and greatly improved upon Bitcoin’s algorithm, there is a wide range of coins with streamlined and easier-to-use features, faster confirmations, and equally good reputations and development teams, as a result set to recover much more significantly than Bitcoin itself — which nevertheless should be leading the way, if or when a price recovery really is sustained and starts setting in.

Overall Crypto Coin Market Expanding

Crypto coins are a beast of its own. Attempts have been made to classify Bitcoin and other peer-to-peer decentralized Crypto coins into one asset class or the other. Some analysts (and alongside them, a number of online trading platforms) believe Crypto coins should be seen as part of the Forex market. Others would like to see Bitcoin and Alt coins as a tangible asset and part of the precious metals market. Neither of these attempts are convincing though. The truth is that, while having some similarities with others, Crypto coins are an asset class of their own.

With other coins beyond the original Bitcoin establishing themselves firmly in the overall market and gaining increasingly significant market share, the argument for seeing Crypto coins as an entire “asset class” becomes more convincing by the week. Besides Bitcoin itself, circulating since early 2009, other peer-to-peer Crypto coins have appeared. The first to follow was Litecoin (ticker: LTC) launched in 2010 and improving on a number of Bitcoins experimental features; most importantly faster confirmation (total transaction) time, a better block size capable of processing a sufficiently high number of transactions, lower energy consumption, and a dedicated and publicly known development team and lead developer. Similar things can also be said about DASH, the innovative and privacy-conscious digital cash (ticker: DASH), Z-Cash (ticker: ZEC), Ethereum (ticker: ETH),  Monero (XMR), or Ethereum Classic (ticker: ETC) — all of which have gained significant market share and range from around $300m to $4bn in market capitalization. This is additional to Bitcoin itself (ticker: BTC) which has a market capitalization of over $19bn at the time of writing.

While these market capitalization figures vary widely for specific coins in the top-15 of today’s peer-to-peer decentralized Crypto coins (or simply that new “Bitcoin world”), the most significant aspect is that the overall capitalization of those top-15 Crypto coins is a combined $27.5 billion, and counting. (This figure of the top-15 Crypto coins is up from roughly $7.8bn year-on-year.)

Ripple as a rather proprietary and not truly decentralized token with its $1.2bn market value is not even included in this figure because, unlike the other Alt coins above,  Ripple does not really count as a “Bitcoin flavor”. (It remains to be seen if Vitalik Buterin’s policies for Ethereum will lead ETH in a similar direction and exclusion from “real” Crypto coins.)

With Bitcoin (BTC) having increased in price for most of the current year and currently trading  above $1250, price gains of all the other coins are even more impressive as they clearly do not come from movements between Bitcoin and other Crypto coins but rather from an influx of new money into the Crypto coin asset class.

This includes current demand from investors following more conventional investment styles and accompanying newsletters. It appears to be time for them to jump on the Crypto coin bandwagon in order to profit from possible price gains as this overall asset class evolves and matures. The resulting increase in demand for at least the ten or twenty top-tier Crypto coins has resulted in significant price gains against all fiat currencies like dollars, pounds or euros over the last weeks and months.

Litecoin (LTC), Ethereum (ETH), and DASH (DASH) have seen the highest price increases while proving to be most stable and not as extremely volatile as some other smaller-cap Crypto coins.

Additional fundamental factors for these coins are adding to market expectations of further price increases as these coins are set to fill an increasing number of market niches opening for coins with special features going beyond Bitcoin’s original abilities and uses.

The Bitcoin Financial Revolution

More than its unit price against dollars, Bitcoin is of interest for reasons quite different from just speculative profits (or losses) from its infamously volatile movements.

First and foremost, the mathematical achievement of solving the “Byzantine General’s Problem” in the process of inventing the blockchain as Bitcoin’s underlying technology is Bitcoin’s most outstanding achievement.

At the same time, the economic potential opening up because of Bitcoin and this overall  breakthrough in decentralization and organizational opportunity flowing from it is what really will matter in a greater context. Having a decentralized ledger is what makes worldwide Bitcoin transactions possible. It has also allowed setting up numerous other decentralized peer-to-peer Crypto coins. Roughly two hundred to three hundred coins similar to Bitcoin have come and gone as of this writing. These alternative or Alt coins use decentralized ledgers similar to Bitcoin’s blockchain. In the case of Alt coins, these are often called block indexes, and Alt coins use the same or one of a number of different encryption algorithms. The underlying technology of Alt coins is largely the same used in Bitcoin though. This entire enabling technology will prove to be a major enabler whose true potential has not even been realized by most people, including many Bitcoin aficionados. It holds the potential for directly bringing together random people from all corners of the world without any middleman (or institution) in order to engage in trade or any other form of exchange.

Once this truly powerful concept has been fully grasped by all involved in the Bitcoin and wider Crypto currency field, it will not really matter what the actual price of one Bitcoin in dollars or similar is at a particular date. True, early adopters of Bitcoin or other Crypto coin, more specialized for a certain use case, will profit from accompanying price increases if they manage to get in and out at the right time. In light of what an actually free market for worldwide exchange of value could mean, short-term profits may be a “nice thing” for sure, but the overall benefits to all present and future Crypto coin users will outweigh these by far.

PPC (Peercoin) Advancing Further

Peercoin, the first proof-of-stake Crypto coin, is advancing further in price both in US dollar terms and against bitcoins.

Earlier today, peercoins traded over $.49 and around BTC .0012500 on many Crpyto coin exchanges, while briefly hitting 150’000 satoshis (BTC .00150000) on Malta-based Bitcoin exchange “The Rock”.

This development is quite in line with earlier expectations of Peercoin being under-valued (read our earlier report http://www.bitcoinfinancial.info/litecoin-and-peercoin-may-be-undervalued-now/ of 20 Feb 2016).

Peercoin had reached and exceeded the BTC .00150000 level briefly in January on Cryptsy before the troubled exchange’s breakdown, but that notation (topping at 159’0000 satoshis) had to be taken with a grain of caution. So whether or not the BTC .00150000 mark is of any technical significance may be uncliear in light of the nature of Cryptsy and the goings on around that outfit.

If today’s BTC .00150000 price at The Rock is exceeded, this would mark a possible breakout of Peercoin to the upside, a development that has gradually been preparing and building for Peercoin over the last few months.

Bitcoin Price Testing $420 to $440 Resistance Area

The price of Bitcoin in US dollars is currently trading around a significant level. Bitcoin price history shows the rough $420 to $440 area to be a repeated level of support. Conversely, this level is now a rather strong line of resistance on Bitcoin’s renewed way up.

With a large flat-top triangle currently forming at this level, Bitcoin prices are preparing to rise more significantly. We may expect larger movements to the upside, once this level is cleared.

Latest BTC Price, as reported on Coinbase

Bitcoin Price May Be Getting Ready for Next Fundamentals

The price of Bitcoin to the US dollar and other paper currencies has been taking a breather during the last days, apparently in the wake of a technical short-term move to the upside in major stock markets.

Bitcoin and other Crypto coin prices powered ahead strongly during the first week of trading amidst uncertainties over stock prices and the worst start on record into a trading year for stocks. Particularly with stock investors in China fleeing the conventional markets and open to unconventional ones, Bitcoin and other Crypto coins were up quite significantly. Notably, this includes other Crypto coins than just Bitcoin and Litecoin like Peercoin, Dogecoin, and Earthcoin. The latter appears to grow into some kind of a darling among the Chinese and, as a result, has been moving quite in line with local developments there for the previous months and throughout several Asian stock market setbacks.

Bitcoin climbed back almost to its highs of late December 2015, but failed to jump over the current high around $463. Currently, the Bitcoin price appears to be waiting for fresh inputs from conventional markets and their fundamentals — mainly the likely negative ones that would propel the Crypto sector further into higher territory.

On this background, the remainder of the month may see some exciting developments for both conventional stock and foreign exchange markets and “alternative” investments as well.

Bitcoin Price Picking Up More Solidly

The price of Bitcoin in US dollars has been picking up significantly again. The  market price of the “original Crypto currency” has been hovering for months but was stable around  $200, always clear of support around $180.

During the last weeks, bitcoins have been solidly advancing from $280 to more than $328 over the weekend. Weekends seem to be some kind of “high season” for amateur Crypto traders who appear to spend their free time glued to their screens and giving many Crypto currencies — beyond just Bitcoin itself — significant movements during these times.

Not that it mattered much for the overall idea of Crypto currency — but the price of Bitcoin is picking up very nicely again (and this time also quite solidly, without that infamous “volatility” the mass-media seems to “know” about BTC). With extra weekend-activity gone now, the latest reading for Bitcoin at Coinbase is still above $320.